There are a number of quarterback matchups on this week’s schedule, and we think Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence will win their respective games.
Here are all of our NFL Week 4 Predictions for this week’s games against the spread.
Index Of This Post
NFL Week 4 Prediction 2022
Picks and Predictions for Week 4 of the NFL
O/U 49.5; Browns -1.5; Browns -125, Falcons +105
The Browns (2-1) and Falcons (1-2) are both doing better than expected at this point in the season. What is the Falcons’ issue? Their better is not quite as excellent as the Browns’ better.
Week 4 NFL selections
NY, KS, LA, AZ, PA, NJ, IA, IL, CO, IN, TN, VA, WV, MI, CT
Cleveland is doing what’s required to survive during Deshaun Watson’s suspension: dominating the game with a pounding ground assault. The Browns are sixth in yards per rush and first in the NFL with 190.7 yards per game (5). They are not only #1 in rush EPA per play (.17), but they also outperform the next-closest club by a significant margin (Panthers, .08).
Expect more of the same against the Falcon’s run defense, who ranks lowest in rush defense EPA per play and allows 4.8 yards per carrying.
Plus, the Browns aren’t surrendering any ground this week when it comes to quarterbacks. QBR ranks Jacoby Brissett sixth (62.6). Marcus Mariota, who has been pleasantly successful in his second attempt at starting, is ranked 12th (55.8).
The uncertainty after Myles Garrett’s automobile accident earlier this week would be one if you were seeking justification to wager against the Browns. However, in our opinion, the Browns may still succeed without him.
Beasley: Browns 24, Falcons 14
Miller: Browns 21, Falcons 18
Browns 24, Falcons 17 Robinson
NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week
Broncos +126, Raiders -150, and Raiders -2.5; Over/Under 45.5
What is going on with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels? A lot. We strongly recommend reading Aaron Wilson’s outstanding in-depth analysis of the soaring desert heat. The main conclusions are that there is a tonne of top-tier ability but nothing backing it up. Also in disarray is the offensive line. All things considered, you have a winless club, and we predict it will continue through Week 4.
The reasons we appreciate Denver this week, however, are not limited to just those. Simply put, we think they haven’t played their best football (even at 2-1), and eventually their performance will match their results.
Actually, that’s unjust. The defence isn’t at all underperforming. Denver’s D is top six in scoring (12 points per game), yards (251.3), yards per play (4.7), running (4.7), throwing (170), yards per pass (5.4), first downs (15.7), third down efficiency (26.5%), fourth down efficiency (25%), red zone efficiency (25%), and goal to go efficiency (50%).
Russell Wilson and the Broncos offence will give the Chiefs a genuine run for their money in the AFC West if they can ever figure out how to score touchdowns (they rank lowest in red zone efficiency and second to worst in goal-to-go conversions).
Maybe they do it this week against a Raiders defence that has given up touchdowns in 100% of goal-to-go and 80% of red zone situations.
Beasley: Raiders 20, Broncos 26
Raiders 27, Broncos 17 (Miller)
Robinson: Broncos 25, Raiders 20
Additional Week 4 NFL predictions and picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Dolphins +175, Bengals -210; Over/Under 47; Bengals -4
The queue began at 3 and has only expanded – which is perfectly acceptable considering the circumstances. The Dolphins’ defence was on the field for 90 plays on Sunday, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is hindered by back and ankle issues, and the Dolphins’ already short prep time was reduced by Hurricane Ian.
The Dolphins (3-0) conducted merely a walkthrough on Tuesday, skipped practise on Monday, then travelled to Cincinnati first thing on Wednesday to make sure they could make it there. Hard scene.
Therefore, we believe that beating the AFC champions on Thursday would be even more amazing than defeating the Ravens or Bills. Although the Bengals are 1-2, their advanced statistics show that they are fairly strong (10th in point differential, 10th in EPA per play).
Additionally, their shoddy pass protection against the Jets seemed to have halted the bleeding. That concept will be put to the test Thursday against an aggressive Dolphins defence that ranks 26th in sack rate (4.9%) but third in pass rush victory rate (53%).
In Year 3, Joe Burrow’s performance declined, placing him in the middle of the pack in terms of CPOE (.6), EPA per play (.07), QBR (47.1), and passer rating (85.1). But Miami has allowed 297.7 passing yards per game (31st), 7.3 yards per attempt (26th), and has an opponents’ passer rating of 104.2 (26th) (26th). The Dolphins enjoy an 18-7 advantage in the overall rivalry but haven’t triumphed in Cincinnati in a decade.
Beasley: Dolphins 20, Bengals 27.
Miller: Dolphins 24, Bengals 27.
Robinson: Dolphins 21, Bengals 28
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Saints +122, Vikings -145, and Vikings -2.5; Over/Under 43.5
Kirk Cousins’ 71.1 passer rating and Justin Jefferson’s average of 31 receiving yards over the course of two poor passing games for the Vikings have prompted serious concerns about the offence, which have only been made worse by Dalvin Cook’s injury.
The Vikings simply don’t appear like a club that can produce points, particularly when its questionable offensive line is put to the test.
The Saints are obviously the same way; Jameis Winston has seemed off-balance with pressure mounting, maybe as a result of his four damaged vertebrae. Even when guarding properly, the offensive line seems unconnected and unfinished.
Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara have had difficulty putting forth work. The only shining star on their offence is still up-and-coming rookie receiver Chris Olave.
Both sides are in an intriguing situation defensively. Few Vikings supporters believe that the defence can stop anything other than a wet paper bag, despite the fact that it ranks 10th in points allowed per game and 13th in points allowed per drive.
A large part of it may be attributed to their dismal first half, whereby poor communication and a dearth of secondary skill led to big play chances that the Vikings were fortunate to avoid.
Conversely, the Saints have seen positive things out of cornerback Marshon Lattimore in the secondary but have possibly the weakest pass rush in the league. It’s impossible to predict when or when the two extremely skilled teams would combine, despite the fact that they may do so at any time.
Vikings 20, Saints 12 (Beasley)
Miller: Vikings 21, Saints 24,
Robinson: Saints 19, Vikings 27
Houston Texans vs the Los Angeles Chargers
Texans +192, Chargers -235, and O/U 44 for the Chargers.
The Chargers were a popular Super Bowl selection at the start of the season, but in typical Chargers form, everything has fallen apart in a couple of weeks. Justin Herbert, struggling with a rib ailment, seemed to be in discomfort throughout the remainder of L.A.’s Week 3 defeat to the Jaguars.
Rashawn Slater, the left tackle, will miss the rest of the season after ripping his biceps, while Joey Bosa, the edge rusher, will be sidelined indefinitely with a groyne issue.
The Chargers, who are one of just two winless teams left in the NFL, have a far more skilled squad than the Texans, despite their health problems. Los Angeles’ Slater-less offensive line may struggle against Houston’s top-10 pass rush, but the Texans have given up the most running yards in the league, so Austin Ekeler might have a huge day.
Jalen Pitre, a safety with the Texans who was selected 37th overall in the 2022 draught, had a breakout performance in Week 3 with two interceptions, two pass deflections, a fumble recovery, two tackles for loss, and a quarterback hit. Long-term, Pitre and fellow rookie Derek Stingley Jr. might give Houston an entertaining secondary.
Beasley: Texans 9, Chargers 13.
Miller: Texans 17, Chargers 23.
Robinson: Texans 14, Chargers 24
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles 6.5; Eagles 278; Jaguars 222; Over/Under 48
We wouldn’t have believed it if someone had told us that Jacksonville’s game against Philadelphia may be the game of the week. Don’t let that line mislead you. The Jaguars were a seven-point underdog against the Chargers just last week.
The Jaguars are first in turnover margin, first in point differential, second in weighted DVOA, third in EPA-per-play, second in yard differential, and fifth in point differential. Even with Football Outsiders correcting for preseason projections with their “DAVE” measure, Jacksonville still ranks 12th. Outside of their secondary troubles in Week 1, they have been dominating.
Through three weeks, the Eagles have been the league’s most dominant team. However, they’ve played three teams who didn’t have winning records a season ago. Speaking of which, the Eagles had a 9-8 record last year despite not defeating a single club with a record of.500 or above.
In 2022, they may not have many challenging opponents. Considering the odds from Las Vegas, they had the easiest schedule going into the season.
Eagles 28, Jaguars 24, Beasley
Miller: Eagles 31, Jaguars 30
Eagles 31, Jaguars 23, says Robinson
Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -4.5; -210 Lions, +175 Seahawks; Over/Under 50
Whether it’s Geno Smith’s unexpectedly cautious, efficient throwing approach or the Lions’ shockingly explosive, aggressive run-oriented attack, it’s clear where the scores come from in both systems.
Given Seattle’s outstanding skill corps and Detroit’s growing offensive line, one that may get better every week simply from its interior being healthier, it’s impossible to say how sustainable either sort of attack is in this situation. However, there is also potential for growth.
Still, these assaults will eventually falter, and it will be up to the defenders to gain momentum. Amani Oruwariye, a cornerback for the Lions, had a difficult game against the Vikings, while Jeff Okudah excelled.
The Lions have the horses in the front seven to put other teams through hell if Detroit can contain rival offences on the back end. Although Seattle’s defence isn’t nearly as well-organized, its young players have already shown a high level of potential.
At the moment, the offenders are in charge of their destiny, but that might change.
Lions 30, Seahawks 11 (Beasley)
Miller: Seahawks 17, 28 Lions
Robinson: Seahawks 20, Lions 27
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants wagering line
Giants -3; Giants -170, Bears +143; O/U 39
It’s crazy that after this game, either the Bears or the Giants will be 3-1. Despite both teams having good records, none is a postseason candidate. No matter how we look at it, their crimes are disgusting.
In terms of offensive points per drive, the Giants are 21st while the Bears are 16th. The Bears and Giants both have 29th-ranked offensive drive success rates. All of this boils down to ineffective passing attacks.
In the first three weeks of the season, the running EPA-per-play rankings for the Bears and Giants are sixth and seventh, respectively. In dropback EPA, no team makes it into the top 20.
On Sunday, whichever team can establish a rhythm in the passing game will be significantly more advantageous.
Bears 13, Giants 10, Beasley
Miller: Bears 17, Giants 16
Giants 17, Bears 14 (Robinson)
Dallas Cowboys vs the Washington Commanders
Commanders +143, Cowboys -170, and Cowboys -3; O/U 41.5
The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders have had opposite fortunes thus far in this new NFL season. Dallas lost against the Buccaneers and suffered the loss of QB Dak Prescott due to injury, while Washington triumphed over what seems to be a strong Jacksonville club.
The Commanders haven’t worked out since then. Their rushing defence has been lacking, and in Week 3’s matchup with his old club, Carson Wentz suffered nine sacks.
Dallas’ pass rush, however, may be even more effective than Philadelphia’s. Additionally, to assist paint a better image for their passing approach, they have developed an offensive game plan. Wideout Noah Brown has stepped up, and the Cowboys’ 12 personnel sets have helped generate more isolated matchups on the outside.
Cowboys 21, Commanders 10, Beasley
Cowboys 27, Commanders 17, Miller
Robinson: Commanders 17, Cowboys 21.
Indiana Colts vs. Tennessee Titans wagering line
Titans +150, Colts -178, and the over/under was 42.5.
The Colts were thought to be the AFC South favourites for 2022, while the Titans were the AFC’s top seed a year ago. But with the Jaguars taking the division — and the league — by storm through three games, Tennessee and Indianapolis are left to battle for table scraps in Week 4.
With wins against the Raiders and Chiefs, respectively, the winless Titans and Colts, who were both winless entering the previous week, preserved any prospective playoff chances. Even though Indianapolis’ victory over the unbeaten Chiefs appeared impressive on paper, they only managed 259 yards of offence and were saved by a few uncharacteristic errors from Kansas City.
The Titans, who also want to rely heavily on the ground game, may struggle against Indianapolis because the Colts haven’t been able to launch what should be a potent Jonathan Taylor-led rushing assault.
The Colts are top in the league in efficiency versus the run, so although a Derrick Henry-centered game plan is Tennessee’s choice, they may have to depend on Ryan Tannehill.
Colts 21, Titans 20, Beasley
Titans 20, Colts 17 Miller
Titans 24, Colts 21. Robinson
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the New York Jets
O/U 40.5; Steelers -3.5; Steelers -190, Jets +158
The Jets-Steelers game in Week 4 will be highlighted by Zach Wilson’s return to the starting lineup for New York, but a quarterback change could be on the horizon for Pittsburgh as well.
Despite Mitchell Trubisky’s league-worst yards per attempt, Mike Tomlin has continued to stand with him. It’s not entirely Trubisky’s fault, of course — Matt Canada’s offence seems sluggish, and Trubisky’s Week 3 passing chart included basically nothing other from go balls down the sidelines.
Trubisky could have his finest game of the year, yet Gang Green can’t stop anybody in the passing game. We could start hearing Kenny Pickett’s entrance song if he falters once more.
After missing three games due to a preseason knee injury, Wilson is now back with the Jets. It is tough to assume New York would expect the former No. 2 overall selection to drop back at the same ludicrous rate as Joe Flacco, particularly against a Steelers defence that has forced a turnover on 17.6% of its drives, sixth-best in the NFL.
Jets 20, Steelers 14, Beasley
Steelers 17, Jets 14 (Miller)
Robinson: Jets 20, Steelers 24
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Bills -3; Bills -170, Ravens +143; O/U 51.5
Right now, you almost have to feel sorry for the top half of the AFC (except for the Kansas City Chiefs). The Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens will have completed a round robin by the beginning of October, while the best in the NFC are primarily gaining weight against bad opponents.
With games against the reigning champions (LAR), the top seed in the AFC for 2021 (TEN), this year’s breakout club (MIA), and now the team with this year’s MVP front-runner, the Bills’ opening schedule has been the worst of the group (BAL).
But the Bills, with the league’s best roster, are built for this. And they are undoubtedly still irate after blowing a victory in Miami last week that they ought to have had. The overall result of the game—Dolphins 21, Bills 19—is relatively low on our list of takeaways (we know Ken Dorsey is.)
The Bills continued to resemble the club we saw during the first two weeks of the season for around 120 of the 129 non-special teams plays. They continue to be the top club in the AFC, NFL, and AFC East.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have yet to defeat a group that has a winning record right now. And despite their high point total (99 in three games), they haven’t yet played against a defence like to the one they will on Sunday. The Bills are fourth in scoring defence and second in terms of yards per play allowed (2.8). (12.7). Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson will undoubtedly be entertaining.
Beasley: Ravens 20, Bills 30
Ravens 33, Bills 30 Miller
Bills 31, Ravens 27. Robinson
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
O/U 42.5; Panthers -1.5; Panthers -125, Cardinals +105
The Cardinals and Panthers are both 1-2 and sliding farther to the periphery of NFC postseason contention, but they’ve gotten here in very different ways.
Through three games, Baker Mayfield has likely been the worst quarterback in the NFL, and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s plan isn’t helping. Carolina’s defence helped them pull out a victory against the Saints in Week 3.
This week, against a Cardinals defence that’s allowing the league’s worst DVOA to pass-catching running backs by a wide margin, Christian McCaffrey needs to be the focal point of the Panthers’ offensive attack.
Although Kyler Murray’s passing volume has climbed each week, he’s still not getting there on efficiency. He ranks 17th among quarterbacks in anticipated points added (EPA) via the air, but he has been outstanding (as usual) on the ground, as he has recorded the third-highest EPA among quarterbacks on run plays.
The loser of this game will slip to 1-3 and basically drop out of the postseason race since neither of these teams seems to be a real playoff contender. Both Matt Rhule and Kliff Kingsbury have a lot on the line, but Rhule might be more in need of the victory.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 20: Beasley
Cardinals 20, Panthers 16 (Miller)
Robinson: Cardinals 23, Panthers 17
Green Bay Packers vs the New England Patriots
O/U 40.5; Packers -9.5; Packers -480, Patriots +360
Although Green Bay looked much better against the Buccaneers with both of its starting offensive tackles back in the game, the offence was still somewhat underwhelming. In spite of the fact that Mac Jones’ ankle has already made significant recovery, indications that Brian Hoyer will likely start for the Patriots instead of Jones are what are truly pushing this extreme line in the Packers’ favour.
The Packers’ talented defence has long lacked cohesiveness, but the past two weeks have showed the NFL what it can look like when it’s at its best. In each of its prior games, including one against Tom Brady, Green Bay gave up less than 14 points. Even so, the Packers’ only encounter with a fully functional offence (Week 1) ended in humiliation. This week, however, it won’t be a problem.
The Patriots’ weak and ineffective defence allowed Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to easily defeat them last week. However, it has a good blend of talent and sound planning that should allow New England to at least partially offset the Packers, though the calibre of Green Bay’s wide receivers will probably be a bigger factor in their inability to score.
Beasley: Packers 28, Patriots 13
Packers 26, Patriots 20 Miller
Robinson: Patriots 16, Packers 24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
Buccaneers +110, Chiefs -130, Chiefs -2, Over/Under 45
Before the season began, it was clear that this would be one of the top matchups of the year since it had two excellent quarterbacks, outstanding teammates surrounding them, and defences with young guys who seemed to be well suited for explosive playmaking.
And there’s a good possibility that still occurs, but both offences have found ways to fall short due to pass-catcher injuries or other problems, and both quarterbacks have sometimes performed below average. Although the defences have some dynamic players, particularly in the secondary, consistency will be the defining factor in this game.
Both teams are very talented and have shown their ability to compete consistently over time. They haven’t been able to develop into the Death Star-style battlestations we’ve become used to, for whatever reason — special teams errors, misunderstandings, protection concerns, injuries, or anything else.
Will this game feature any fireworks? A strong likelihood exists. But if we don’t, it would only fit the pattern.
Beasley: Buccaneers 17, Chiefs 28
Miller: Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 30
Robinson: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 27
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rams +105, 49ers -2.5, 49ers -125, O/U 42
Jimmy Garoppolo has to perform better than he did against Denver in Week 2 if San Francisco is going to defeat its NFC West foe. Hopefully, for San Francisco, it is simply taking him some time to get back into the flow of things following a lengthy summer of therapy from his shoulder injury.
With the exception of Cam Akers’ costly fumble late in the game, which held the Rams out of the end zone and allowed the Cardinals a chance to go down the field and maybe tie the game, the Rams finally had a successful day on the ground against the Cardinals.
Over the previous seven games, Kyle Shanahan had his protégé’s number, going 6-1 versus Los Angeles. But since it happened most recently and was the most consequential, his one defeat was the most crucial. This will be their first encounter since the Rams upset the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Beasley: Rams 16, 49ers 23
Miller: Rams 24, 49ers 27
Robinson: 49ers 21, Rams 17
standings after three weeks of the season
24-23-1 against the spread and 24-23 straight up
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